New Orleans Pet Care: 9/30/18

Saturday, October 6, 2018

Special Mid-Day Update...

The visible satellite loops clearly reveal a well-defined low level circulation east of Belize, but the upper level westerly shear is blowing all storms to the right (east) side of this system. NHC has increased (guaranteed) the probability for development to 90% and we should see them call it a tropical depression later today or early on Sunday. Most computer models are locked in on a northward motion bringing, what will be named Michael towards the mouth of the River before turning him to the northeast with landfall to our east. That would be huge as that would keep us on the weaker side of this system. In addition, drier and COOLER air would flow down over us as Michael moves to our east. The timeline remains unchanged with landfall on Wednesday morning. If that track is reality, we would see minimal impacts from wind and rain with some higher tides east of the mouth of the River. If you have reservations for the AL/FL beaches for next week, Tuesday through Thursday looks wet. Computer models do bring Michael to moderate to strong (50-65 mph) tropical storm strength so he will bring some impacts to areas east of the center. RIGHT NOW, things are looking OK for us, but we still don’t have a center to track. We should start to feel more confident once a center is established and new model runs come out. Next update will be tonight, unless new info changes my thinking. Stay tuned! Bob Breck

Friday, October 5, 2018

Mid Afternoon Update...

The visible satellite loop clearly shows a low level circulation about 80 miles north of the Honduras coastline over the open waters of the western Caribbean. It is becoming more apparent that some kind of tropical disturbance (Depression/Tropical Storm/Hurricane) will form over the next 2-3 days. Hindering development( RIGHT NOW) are strong upper level westerly winds (Shear) and later tomorrow, the interaction of land (Yucatan Peninsula). All models have some kind of development with several bringing it right over us/near the mouth of the River while others steer it farther to the east towards the Florida beaches. That kind of uncertainty is understandable since we have nothing to track yet. With the MJO in the favorable (rising air) phase & the very warm waters(deep oceanic heat content) of the western Caribbean as the fuel source, I can almost guarantee we’ll be tracking Michael over this weekend. The time line hasn’t changed since yesterday (Late Tuesday into early Wednesday) having landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Since these late season systems are usually very lopsided (eastern weighted), it will be important that we stay to the left (west) of the centerline track once NHC starts issuing advisories. Again, nothing has formed yet, but based on models & satellite loops, it’s only a matter of time. My next update will come later tonight . Stayed tuned! Bob Breck