Friday, September 7, 2018
Thursday, September 6, 2018
Wednesday, September 5, 2018
Tuesday, September 4, 2018
Midday Update...Gordon Soon to be Hurricane...
There has been a huge burst of T-Storms around the center of Gordon during the last 3 hours and surface pressures are falling, two sure signs of a strengthening system. NHC (National Hurricane Center)also says lightning activity has increased so don’t be surprised to see them upgrade it to a hurricane shortly. Their track has not changed any and they indicated high confidence as Gordon approaches the coast. NOLA is no longer in the cone of error and our thoughts for greatest impacts remain well east of us. As Gordon passes to the NE later tonight, the N-Shore (Amite, Kentwood, Franklinton, Bogalusa, Picayune) could see winds gusting to 50+, which would cause some power outages. All in all, this is a good test for Louisiana Emergency Managers to make sure all their plans are ready when the next real threat comes. Looking at several systems coming off of Africa, those threats could be here in the 10-20 day time frame. For now, our focus is on Gordon which shows NO SIGNS of a westward turn. It still is very lopsided with most of the rain on the east/right side. NHC says the strongest winds only spread out 10-15 miles from the center. This will not be a major hurricane like Katrina, but it could bring a storm surge of 5+ feet and 5-10" of rain along the MS/AL/FL coasts. Landfall should occur after dark around 10 PM. Our thoughts and prayers are with those to our east.
FYI…I do read many of the replies you post to my blog. The internet is a great thing, but it can be a great danger when those without knowledge and training start thinking they are brain surgeons and copy & paste posts from other sources besides NHC. There’s a reason these guys are good. To become a hurricane specialists, you have to have a MS or PhD PLUS years of forecasting experience. We are fortunate to have one of my former interns (Eric Blake from Mandeville) as one of those specialists plus Ken Graham ( former Meteorologist in charge of NWS Slidell)as the new Director. Go back and look and you’ll see people saying Cat. 5, shifting track yada, yada when NHC has been very consistent with their information. There is a reason Knowledge + Experience = Trust. Trust is earned, every day, every season, every storm. I am biased, but you really need to watch the superior graphics presented by FOX 8. They clearly explain where the major impacts from Gordon will be. Next update around 5 pm. Stay tuned! Bob Breck
Gordon...Steady as He Goes...
The morning update is all good news. Overnight the pressure hasn’t dropped, winds are fairly stable at 60-65 mph, the forward speed remains fast (15+ mph) and most importantly, the forecast track hasn’t shifted much with centerline landfall over Gulfport. Satellite loops show Gordon is very lopsided(east side loaded) with parts of the western circulation exposed (no storms). Unless NHC computer guidance is totally incorrect, this will be a Mississippi, Alabama & Florida storm. Oh sure, we will see several squalls pass through with some gusty winds, but the damaging winds will be confined to near the center (Gulfport) and eastward. From Slidell to Bay St. Louis to Gulfport, there will be higher winds, but you will be on the weaker side of landfall. Storm surge could get to 2-4 ft., but east of the centerline landfall a surge up to 5 ft+ could happen. That is also where the heaviest rains will occur and I think we’ll only get 1-2" if that. Shelby Latino just showed the VIPIR model and it confirms the flooding rains will be well to our east and north. St. Tammany & Washington Parishes will see greater impacts than the South Shore, but even there rainfall should be no greater than 2-4". Repeating, unless there is a radical shift to the west at the last minute (Highly unlikely), Gordon will be a Mississippi, Alabama, & Florida storm. Don’t even think about driving to the east today or tonight. Next update around noon. Stay tuned! Bob Breck
Monday, September 3, 2018
Please let us know if you are working from home on Wednesday and also, any of you that may be on call Tuesday into Wednesday, please let me know.
Traveling Parents - We have y'all all set.
Midday Update...Gordon Has Entered Gulf...
Land based radars out of south Florida indicate Gordon is gaining better structure around a well-defined center that is now about 30 miles south of Naples. Satellite loops show quite a bit of wind shear over us, but very little over the eastern Gulf. That should allow Gordon to strengthen for the next 12-24 hours and NHC is now saying he could reach a minimal hurricane before making landfall in Mississippi. The question then becomes…Where will the center go? MY past several blogs have said the NHC’s projected track keeps shifting farther and farther to the east.(which is good for NOLA). Their latest best guess is between Gulfport and Biloxi Tuesday night & before daybreak on Wednesday, which would keep us on the weaker side. However, let me be VERY CLEAR on this, NOLA is still within the cone of error so we should not feel safe from any impacts yet. NHC’s next track guidance comes out around 4 PM and I will feel better if their eastward trending continues. What you need to be watching for is where NHC places that centerline. Hopefully it’ll continue nudging eastward. Also, watch the forward motion speed which now is 16 mph. What makes me nervous is the physics of the atmosphere that says…the bigger the storm and the faster it moves makes it difficult to change course. We will need Gordon to veer slightly to the north to make sure we remain on the weaker side and slow down a little. RIGHT NOW I don’t see anything that suggests Gordon will keep moving towards Louisiana, but we are not out of the cone so the danger remains. The eastern track should keep the main impacts along the Gulf coast into the Florida Panhandle. If this track proves correct, our heavy rain threat may not come until Wednesday when we could get stuck under some of the banding features creating a training effect. So the bottom line at midday is this. The brunt of Gordon should stay to the east of NOLA with least impacts to the SW (Houma, Grand Isle, Morgan City) and greater impacts to the NE ( Bogalusa, Picayune, Gulfport). Next update after 5 PM. Stay tuned! Bob Breck