Sunday, October 7, 2018

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Sunday, October 7, 2018

Michael Is Coming, But Not To NOLA...

Satellite loops are showing a slowly organizing tropical system just off the east coast of the Yucatan. Michael should be named later today as the Hurricane Hunters will be flying down to see if they can find 40+ mph surface winds. Computer guidance remains consistent in taking soon to be Michael well to our east into the Florida Panhandle. In fact, the latest center line track has shifted farther to the right (away from us) now east of Panama City with the cone of error now east of Mobile. It would take a major shift back to the west for us to see any impacts and that chance seems very remote. What I will be watching for is the longitude of this system, which currently has it near 87 west. We are at 90 degrees west and, as long as Michael stays east of 90 degrees, we should be spared any impacts from this system. Michael will head northward into the Gulf later today & tonight eventually making a turn to the NE on Tuesday. What we don’t want is for him to drift farther to the west (say 92-93 degrees) before making the turn to the NE. RIGHT NOW there is nothing to indicate that westward shift in the track. This storm should stay "east side loaded" so most of the winds and rains will be east of Mobile Bay. As it passes by on Tuesday & Wednesday, we should notice an increase in northerly winds here bringing a drier feel to our air. By Friday & Saturday cooler air should also filter in making for a great feeling weekend. Very cold air(20s & 30s) covers the northern Rockies & central Plains and a stronger push of that chill should reach us by next Sunday. Once soon to be Michael has made landfall, I will notify the "Fat Lady" that it’s time to sing. Until then, if you have plans for the Florida beaches (MS & AL should be OK) from Pensacola eastward, you might start thinking about rebooking till next week. The Saint’s tailgating on Monday night should be OK with maybe a passing shower at worst. I will not post again until tonight unless something comes up that changes the current thinking. Stay tuned! Bob Breck