Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Lastest on 92 L

Pressures are falling in the Western Caribbean where a tropical wave (92L) is headed northwest at 10 - 15 mph.Cayman Islands radar shows that the thunderstorm activity is disorganized, and satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, and no signs of a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The 00Z SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Friday, but then shear will rise on Saturday. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the 06Z run of the GFS model. It shows a landfall on Saturday of a weak tropical storm between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model shows a more westerly path for 92L, with the storm eventually coming ashore near the Texas/Mexico border. The European model keeps 92L weak and does not develop it. The more northwards path advertised by the GFS model would bring a large amount of moisture into the Southeast U.S., resulting in a large area of 4+" of rain. In their 8 am EDT WednesdayTropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 50% of developing by Friday, and a 60% chance of developing by Monday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday, if necessary.

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