Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Gordon update - 12p

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Midday Update...Gordon Soon to be Hurricane...

There has been a huge burst of T-Storms around the center of Gordon during the last 3 hours and surface pressures are falling, two sure signs of a strengthening system. NHC (National Hurricane Center)also says lightning activity has increased so don’t be surprised to see them upgrade it to a hurricane shortly. Their track has not changed any and they indicated high confidence as Gordon approaches the coast. NOLA is no longer in the cone of error and our thoughts for greatest impacts remain well east of us. As Gordon passes to the NE later tonight, the N-Shore (Amite, Kentwood, Franklinton, Bogalusa, Picayune) could see winds gusting to 50+, which would cause some power outages. All in all, this is a good test for Louisiana Emergency Managers to make sure all their plans are ready when the next real threat comes. Looking at several systems coming off of Africa, those threats could be here in the 10-20 day time frame. For now, our focus is on Gordon which shows NO SIGNS of a westward turn. It still is very lopsided with most of the rain on the east/right side. NHC says the strongest winds only spread out 10-15 miles from the center. This will not be a major hurricane like Katrina, but it could bring a storm surge of 5+ feet and 5-10" of rain along the MS/AL/FL coasts. Landfall should occur after dark around 10 PM. Our thoughts and prayers are with those to our east.

FYI…I do read many of the replies you post to my blog. The internet is a great thing, but it can be a great danger when those without knowledge and training start thinking they are brain surgeons and copy & paste posts from other sources besides NHC. There’s a reason these guys are good. To become a hurricane specialists, you have to have a MS or PhD PLUS years of forecasting experience. We are fortunate to have one of my former interns (Eric Blake from Mandeville) as one of those specialists plus Ken Graham ( former Meteorologist in charge of NWS Slidell)as the new Director. Go back and look and you’ll see people saying Cat. 5, shifting track yada, yada when NHC has been very consistent with their information. There is a reason Knowledge + Experience = Trust. Trust is earned, every day, every season, every storm. I am biased, but you really need to watch the superior graphics presented by FOX 8. They clearly explain where the major impacts from Gordon will be. Next update around 5 pm. Stay tuned! Bob Breck

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