Gordon...Steady as He Goes...
The morning update is all good news. Overnight the pressure hasn’t dropped, winds are fairly stable at 60-65 mph, the forward speed remains fast (15+ mph) and most importantly, the forecast track hasn’t shifted much with centerline landfall over Gulfport. Satellite loops show Gordon is very lopsided(east side loaded) with parts of the western circulation exposed (no storms). Unless NHC computer guidance is totally incorrect, this will be a Mississippi, Alabama & Florida storm. Oh sure, we will see several squalls pass through with some gusty winds, but the damaging winds will be confined to near the center (Gulfport) and eastward. From Slidell to Bay St. Louis to Gulfport, there will be higher winds, but you will be on the weaker side of landfall. Storm surge could get to 2-4 ft., but east of the centerline landfall a surge up to 5 ft+ could happen. That is also where the heaviest rains will occur and I think we’ll only get 1-2" if that. Shelby Latino just showed the VIPIR model and it confirms the flooding rains will be well to our east and north. St. Tammany & Washington Parishes will see greater impacts than the South Shore, but even there rainfall should be no greater than 2-4". Repeating, unless there is a radical shift to the west at the last minute (Highly unlikely), Gordon will be a Mississippi, Alabama, & Florida storm. Don’t even think about driving to the east today or tonight. Next update around noon. Stay tuned! Bob Breck
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