Midday Update...Gordon Has Entered Gulf...
Land based radars out of south Florida indicate Gordon is gaining better structure around a well-defined center that is now about 30 miles south of Naples. Satellite loops show quite a bit of wind shear over us, but very little over the eastern Gulf. That should allow Gordon to strengthen for the next 12-24 hours and NHC is now saying he could reach a minimal hurricane before making landfall in Mississippi. The question then becomes…Where will the center go? MY past several blogs have said the NHC’s projected track keeps shifting farther and farther to the east.(which is good for NOLA). Their latest best guess is between Gulfport and Biloxi Tuesday night & before daybreak on Wednesday, which would keep us on the weaker side. However, let me be VERY CLEAR on this, NOLA is still within the cone of error so we should not feel safe from any impacts yet. NHC’s next track guidance comes out around 4 PM and I will feel better if their eastward trending continues. What you need to be watching for is where NHC places that centerline. Hopefully it’ll continue nudging eastward. Also, watch the forward motion speed which now is 16 mph. What makes me nervous is the physics of the atmosphere that says…the bigger the storm and the faster it moves makes it difficult to change course. We will need Gordon to veer slightly to the north to make sure we remain on the weaker side and slow down a little. RIGHT NOW I don’t see anything that suggests Gordon will keep moving towards Louisiana, but we are not out of the cone so the danger remains. The eastern track should keep the main impacts along the Gulf coast into the Florida Panhandle. If this track proves correct, our heavy rain threat may not come until Wednesday when we could get stuck under some of the banding features creating a training effect. So the bottom line at midday is this. The brunt of Gordon should stay to the east of NOLA with least impacts to the SW (Houma, Grand Isle, Morgan City) and greater impacts to the NE ( Bogalusa, Picayune, Gulfport). Next update after 5 PM. Stay tuned! Bob Breck
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